查看星期三, 14 9月 2022歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2022 Sep 14 1232 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10公分通量	Ap
14 Sep 2022	156	011
15 Sep 2022	155	004
16 Sep 2022	155	015

公告

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours reached moderate levels with a gradual M1.1-class flare, start time 09:41 UTC, end time 10:43 UTC, peak time 10:19 UTC on Sept 14th and multiple C-class flares, including an impulsive C9.2-class flare, start time 15:07 UTC, end time 15:28 UTC and peak time 15:16 UTC on Sept 13th. Most of the flaring activity including the M-flare were produced by the largest and most complex active region, NOAA 3098 (beta-gamma), which underwent further development and is a few days away from the west limb. NOAA 3101 has now rotated behind the west limb and continued to produce low C-class flaring from behind the limb. The region near the south-east limb, NOAA 3102 (beta), has produced only isolated low C-class flaring. NOAA 3100 (beta) underwent some growth, but remained inactive. NOAA 3094 and NOAA 3099 have now decayed into plage regions. The remaining active regions are magnetically simple and have remained inactive. The flaring activity is expected to be at low background levels with chances for more isolated M-class flaring mainly from NOAA 3098 in the next 24 hours.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was elevated, but remained below minor storm level in the past 24 hours. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below minor storm level, but could reach the threshold depending on further flaring/CME activity. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has crossed the 1000 pfu threshold over long periods of time and is expected to be above the threshold for long periods in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) registered disturbances related to what could be a mild ICME arrival. This could be a signature of a very weak halo CME seen in the LASCO C2 data in the evening of Sept 10th, possibly following the on disc filament eruption around 19:30 UTC on Sept 10th. The signatures could possibly also be attributed to a minor glancing blow from the later filament eruption on Sept 10th or the eastward CME, leaving the Sun around 07:48 UTC on Sept 11th, although the observed solar wind speeds do not support the latter. The solar wind velocity smoothly varied around 300 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum value of 11.5 nT with a weak Bz-component not less than -5.2 nT. Over the night the B field switched from the positive to the negative sector for about 7 hours and returned back to the positive sector after (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to be slightly enhanced over the next 24 hours with elevated density and temperature and possibly sightly elevated magnetic field. High speed stream from a negative polarity coronal hole which partially resides on the central meridian is expected to arrive at Earth early on Sept 16th.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected to persist over the next 24 hours with minor chances for isolated active periods.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：092，基於10個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 13 Sep 2022

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	143
10厘米太陽通量	154
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	002
估計地磁Ap指數	003
估計國際太陽黑子數	105 - 基於20個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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