查看星期二, 11 10月 2022歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2022 Oct 11 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
11 Oct 2022	163	007
12 Oct 2022	163	007
13 Oct 2022	163	007

公告

There are five active regions on ths visible disc, the X-ray flux background has been at the C level in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 3112 (beta magnetic field configuration) produced three M-class flares, the strongest was an M3.9 flare, peaking at 08:42 UT. More M-class flares can be expected in the coming 24 hours, X-flares are possible.

A slow CME with an apparent angular width of around 70 degrees was observed on 10 October (first seen in LASCO-C2 at 00:24 UT). It was directed mostly to the south east, but an Earth-directed component cannot be discarded, a glancing blow may occur on 14 October. The M-flares that occurred today were accompanied by Type-II bursts (as measured by the Humain Radioastronomy Station), no coronagraph data are available yet to confirm the presence of CMEs.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been above the 1000 pfu threshold in the last 24 hours, it is expected to remain elevated in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal to moderate levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed at the Earth has decreased in the last 24 hours to about 450 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude has been around 5 nT. In the next 24 hours, similar conditions are expected. Although there are small chances that the CME from 7 October arrives in the coming 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (both Kp and K_Dourbes up to 3). Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, active conditions are possible if the CME from 7 October arrives.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：100，基於19個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 10 Oct 2022

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	163
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	010
估計地磁Ap指數	010
估計國際太陽黑子數	113 - 基於34個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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