查看星期四, 21 9月 2023歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2023 Sep 21 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
21 Sep 2023	156	008
22 Sep 2023	158	007
23 Sep 2023	160	007

太陽活動區和耀斑

There are eleven active regions visible on the disk. The strongest flare of the last 24 hours was an M8.2 one from NOAA AR 3435 (beta-delta magnetic field configuration), peaking at 14:19 UTC on 20 September. All the other regions have simpler alpha or beta magnetic field configuration. More M-class flares can be expected in the next 24 hours, X-class flares are possible but less likely.

日冕物質拋射

A partial halo CME with angular width around 150 degrees was first seen at 06:12 UTC on 20 September by LASCO-C2. The CME originated in a region at the east limb, and the bulk of the material was traveling to the east. The CME was slow (speed around 350 km/s), no effect is expected at the Earth.

A second (faint) partial halo CME with angular width around 180 degrees was first seen at 14:12 UTC on 20 September by LASCO-C2. The CME was related to the M8.2 flare from NOAA AR 3435, the bulk of the material was traveling to the south. The CME had a speed around 800 km/s, an impact at the Earth can be expected on 23 September.

日冕洞

Two small negative coronal holes crossed the central meridian yesterday, one at the equator and one in the northern hemisphere. A possible mild high speed stream may arrive to the Earth in 48 hours.

太陽風

In the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed at the Earth has decreased to 430 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic field has decreased to 4 nT. Similar slow solar wind conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours, unless we observe the (unlikely) arrival of the 17 and 18 September CMEs.

地磁

During the last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions have reached active levels globally (NOAA KP 4) and unsettled levels locally (K_Bel 3). Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions can be expected in the next 24 hours, with possible active to minor storm levels if the CMEs from 17 and 18 September arrive.

質子通量水平

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux went above the 1000 pfu between 13:00 UTC and 20:00 UTC on 20 September, as measured by GOES 16. It may increase over the threshold again in the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at moderate levels, it is expected to stay at those levels for the next 24 hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：197，基於07個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 20 Sep 2023

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	156
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	018
估計地磁Ap指數	018
估計國際太陽黑子數	179 - 基於19個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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