查看星期五, 22 9月 2023歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2023 Sep 22 1234 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
22 Sep 2023	168	007
23 Sep 2023	166	019
24 Sep 2023	166	013

太陽活動區和耀斑

There are eleven active regions visible on the disk. There were two M-class flares in the last 24 hours, the strongest flare of the last 24 hours was an M8.7 from NOAA AR 3435 (beta- delta magnetic field configuration), peaking at 12:54 UTC on 21 September. NOAA ARs 3441 and 3442 have evolved into a beta-gamma magnetic field configuration. All the other regions have simpler alpha or beta magnetic field configuration. More M-class flares can be expected in the next 24 hours, X-class flares are possible.

日冕物質拋射

A partial halo CME with angular width around 150 degrees was first seen by LASCO-C2 at 13:36 UTC on 21 September. The CME was related to the M8.7 flare from NOAA AR 3435. The CME speed was estimated to be around 500 km/s, with the bulk of the material directed to the south. Since the source is located close to disk center, an impact at Earth can be expected on 25 September.

A second wide CME was observed right after the first one, directed towards the NE, this CME is backsided and will not affect the Earth.

日冕洞

Two small negative coronal holes crossed the central meridian on 20 September, a related (mild) high speed stream could arrive to the Earth in about 24 hours.

太陽風

In the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed at the Earth has been around 400 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field has decreased to 4 nT. Similar slow solar wind conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours. Nevertheless, two CMEs can arrive to the Earth and change the solar wind conditions. The first one was expected for today (with low chances of arrival) and the second one for 23 September (with higher chances of arrival). Furthermore, in about 24 hours we may observe the arrival of a (mild) high speed stream from the two coronal holes that traversed central meridian two days ago.

地磁

During the last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to unsettled, both globally and locally (NOAA KP 3, K_Bel 3). Similar conditions can be expected in the next 24 hours, with possible active to minor storm levels if the CMEs and high speed stream arrive.

質子通量水平

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu, as measured by GOES 16. It may increase over the threshold in the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at moderate levels, it is expected to stay at those levels for the next 24 hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：222，基於13個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 21 Sep 2023

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	168
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	012
估計地磁Ap指數	010
估計國際太陽黑子數	200 - 基於13個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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