查看星期五, 20 10月 2023歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2023 Oct 20 1238 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
20 Oct 2023	127	017
21 Oct 2023	125	014
22 Oct 2023	123	015

太陽活動區和耀斑

The solar flaring activity was at low levels. The majority of the flaring activity originated from at or beyond the west limb. The three regions on disk, Catania sunspot regions 12, 4 and 9 (NOAA AR 3465, NOAA AR 3464 and NOAA AR 3468) are all simple regions and were quiet. Catania sunspot group 18, is about to rotate over the west limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely.

日冕物質拋射

A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) directed to the south-east was visible in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 15:00 UTC October 19. This determined to be a back-sided event and will not impact Earth. A filament eruption in the south-east quadrant began to lift off at around 18:20 UTC. This produced a narrow CME in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data to the south- east visible from 19:20 UTC but is not expected to be Earth-directed.

日冕洞

A small, negative polarity coronal hole in the northern hemisphere continues to transit the central meridian since October 19.

太陽風

The solar wind speed ranged between 320km/s and 430 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was stable around 5nT for most of the period increasing slightly to 9nT near the end of the period. Bz had a minimum value of -6 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the positive sector (field directed away from Sun). The solar wind speed is expected to remain slightly enhanced over the next days due to possible new high-speed stream associated with the small negative polarity coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on October 16. Additional further enhancements in the speed and magnetic field may be possible on October 20 to October 22, due to the glancing blows predicted for the CMEs from October 16, 17 and 18.

地磁

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA KP and K Bel 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels generally. Active intervals are also possible between October 20 to 22, due to the predicted CME glancing blows and high-speed stream.

質子通量水平

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24 hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at nominal levels for the next days.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：068，基於05個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 19 Oct 2023

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	060
10厘米太陽通量	129
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	008
估計地磁Ap指數	009
估計國際太陽黑子數	055 - 基於18個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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