太陽和地磁活動公告 - 星期三, 15 11月 2023

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SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2023 Nov 15 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10公分通量	Ap
15 Nov 2023	124	007
16 Nov 2023	120	007
17 Nov 2023	116	007

太陽活動區和耀斑

There are six active regions visible on the disk. Solar activity was driven by the active regions rotating out of view over the west limb. There is a new region that rotated into view, NOAA AR 3488 (alpha magnetic field configuration). The strongest flare was an M1.1 from NOAA AR 3485 (beta magnetic field configuration) peaking at 23:05 UTC on 14 November. More M-class flares can occur in the next 24 hours.

日冕物質拋射

No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the last 24 hours.

太陽風

In the last 24 hours, the solar wind conditions at the Earth have returned to a slow wind regime. The interplanetary magnetic field is around 7nT and the solar wind speed around 450 km/s. Similar conditions can be expected in the next 24 hours.

地磁

During the last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled globally (NOAA KP 3) and reached active levels locally (K_Bel 4). Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

質子通量水平

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels. Due to the proximity to the west limb of an active region producing M-class flares, a warning condition for proton events is active for the next 24 hours.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold, as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels, it is expected to stay at those levels for the next 24 hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：036，基於15個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 14 Nov 2023

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	071
10厘米太陽通量	124
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	007
估計地磁Ap指數	005
估計國際太陽黑子數	060 - 基於14個觀測站