查看星期日, 19 11月 2023歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2023 Nov 19 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

太陽活動區和耀斑

There are three active regions visible on the disk. NOAA AR 3486 is rotating out of view over the west limb. Most of the activity comes from the ARs rotating into view over the east limb. In particular, NOAA 3490, with beta magnetic field configuration, but the full extent of the AR is not yet visible. This AR produced two M-class flares in the last 24 hours, the strongest one was an M1.1 flare peaking at 16:44 UTC on 18 November. More M-class flares can be expected in the next 24 hours.

日冕物質拋射

No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the last 24 hours.

日冕洞

The high speed solar wind emanating from the low latitudinal extension of a high latitude coronal hole (in the northern hemisphere, negative polarity) may arrive to the Earth in 24 hours. Although, due to the high latitude location of the coronal hole, the high speed solar wind may miss the Earth. The solar wind from a second, equatorial, coronal hole with positive polarity may affect the Earth in 48 hours.

太陽風

The Earth is immersed in slow solar wind with speed around 380 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 5 nT. Same conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. The situation will change when the high speed solar wind from two coronal holes arrives to the Earth in 24 to 48 hours.

地磁

During the last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were quiet globally and locally (NOAA KP 2, K_Bel 2). Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, active conditions can be expected after due to the arrival of a high speed stream.

質子通量水平

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below threshold and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold, as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels, it is expected to stay at those levels for the next 24 hours.

太陽活動指數 18 Nov 2023

顯著活動摘要

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