查看星期三, 20 12月 2023歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2023 Dec 20 1244 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
20 Dec 2023	181	015
21 Dec 2023	182	010
22 Dec 2023	183	015

太陽活動區和耀斑

The solar flaring activity was at low levels with several C-class flares during the last 24 hours. The largest reported flare was GOES C8.3 flare, which peaked at 08:54 UT on Dec 20, from NOAA AR 3521. During the flare, the source region (AR 3521) of the flare had beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with few C-class flares, possibly M-class flares and a low chance for isolated X-class flares.

日冕物質拋射

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hour.

日冕洞

A negative polarity coronal hole has crossed the central meridian and a high-speed stream from this coronal hole may arrive to Earth from December 22.

太陽風

Earth continues to be under the influence of the fast solar wind. The solar wind speed decreased from 665 km/s to 475 km/s. The North- South component (Bz) ranged between -7 and 6 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranging from 1 nT to 8 nT. In the next 24 hours, we expect a gradual transition from fast to slow solar wind.

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to active conditions (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 4), due to the continued impact of high speed streams from the positive polarity coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on Dec 17. The geomagnetic condition is expected to be quiet to active conditions probably in the next 24 hours.

質子通量水平

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected that this parameter to remain below the threshold level in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence continues to be at normal level and is expected to remain so.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：153，基於06個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 19 Dec 2023

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	231
10厘米太陽通量	179
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	012
估計地磁Ap指數	011
估計國際太陽黑子數	174 - 基於14個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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