查看星期四, 21 12月 2023歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2023 Dec 21 1256 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
21 Dec 2023	205	006
22 Dec 2023	205	018
23 Dec 2023	204	022

太陽活動區和耀斑

The solar flaring activity was at moderate level during the last 24 hours, with several C-class flares and a M-class flare. The strongest flare was GOES M4.2 flare from NOAA AR 3519 which peaked at 05:38 UTC on Dec 21. During the flare, the source region (AR 3519) of the flare had beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with few C-class flares, possibly M-class flares and a low chance for isolated X-class flares.

日冕物質拋射

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hour.

日冕洞

A negative polarity coronal hole crossed the central meridian on Dec 20 and a high-speed stream from this coronal hole may arrive to Earth from December 22.

太陽風

Solar wind conditions have transitioned from fast to slow solar wind. The solar wind speed ranged between 350 km/s and 490 km/s. The North- South component (Bz) ranged between -4 and 3 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 1 nT to 5 nT. Slow solar wind conditions are expected to continue over the next 24 hours unless the high speed streams from the negative polarity coronal hole, which started to cross the central meridian on Dec 18, impact the Earth.

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 3) over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain so unless the high speed streams from the negative polarity coronal hole, which started to cross the central meridian on Dec 18, impact the Earth.

質子通量水平

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was just below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It increased probably due to enhanced solar wind conditions but remained just below the 1000 pfu alert threshold level. It may increase even further and cross the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal level and is expected to remain so.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：147，基於03個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 20 Dec 2023

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	231
10厘米太陽通量	195
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	011
估計地磁Ap指數	012
估計國際太陽黑子數	160 - 基於14個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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