查看星期二, 13 2月 2024歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2024 Feb 13 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

太陽質子

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10公分通量	Ap
13 Feb 2024	180	027
14 Feb 2024	178	040
15 Feb 2024	178	016

太陽活動區和耀斑

The solar flaring activity was at moderate levels, with three M-class flares and several C-class flares recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an M2.6 flare, peaking at 21:17 on Feb 12, associated with the AR behind the east limb (N28E86). NOAA AR 3576 remains the most complex AR on the visible solar disc and produced two M-class flares: an M1.1 flare, peaking at 13:08 on Feb 12 and an M1.4 flare, peaking at 15:48 on Feb 12. Low flaring activity was also produced by NOAA AR 3583 (beta-gamma). Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with likely M-class flaring and a chance for an isolated X-class flare.

日冕物質拋射

A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph data from 14:12 UTC on February 12th. The CME is associated to a prominence eruption from behind the north-east limb. Based on the source location, no impact on Earth is expected. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

太陽風

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were reflecting near slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed decreased from values around 530 km/s to 430 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was below 6 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -4 nT and 4 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the negative sector (field directed towards the Sun). Similar solar wind conditions are expected, with a possibility of a week enhancement on Feb 13 - Feb 14 due to the anticipated arrival of multiple CMEs from Feb 9th and Feb 10th.

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet both globally and locally (NOAA-Kp and K-BEL: 1 to 2) during the last 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain mostly at quiet levels, with a chance of reaching active and minor storm levels on Feb 13 - 14 due to potential CMEs arrivals.

質子通量水平

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained above the 10pfu threshold, reaching a maximum value of 120 pfu as measured by GOES-18 at 06:15 UTC on February 13. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to remain at minor radiation storm levels on Feb 13th and, in case of no new triggers, decline towards nominal levels by the end of Feb 14th.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：135，基於19個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 12 Feb 2024

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	193
10厘米太陽通量	208
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	003
估計地磁Ap指數	003
估計國際太陽黑子數	160 - 基於26個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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