查看星期三, 14 2月 2024歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2024 Feb 14 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10公分通量	Ap
14 Feb 2024	191	015
15 Feb 2024	187	031
16 Feb 2024	184	015

太陽活動區和耀斑

The solar flaring activity was at moderate levels, with two M-class flares and several C-class flares recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flares were an M1.0 flare, peaking at 03:10 UTC on Feb 14, associated with NOAA AR 3582 (beta) and an M1.0 flare, peaking at 07:35 UTC on Feb 14, associated with NOAA AR 3576 (beta-gamma-delta). NOAA AR 3576 remains the most complex and active AR on the visible solar disc. Low flaring activity was also produced by NOAA AR 3584 (beta). The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with likely M-class flaring and a chance for an isolated X-class flare.

日冕物質拋射

No Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

太陽風

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were reflecting near slow solar wind conditions, with some transient features having a mild influence. The solar wind speed ranged between 350 km/s and 500 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was below 8 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -6 nT and 6 nT. Similar solar wind conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, with a chance for of a week enhancement on Feb 14 due to the possible arrival of CMEs from Feb 9th and Feb 10th.

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to active both globally and locally (NOAA-Kp and K-BEL: 1 to 4) during the last 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly at quiet to unsettled levels, with a slight probability of active or minor storm periods over the next 24 hours, due to possible CMEs arrivals.

質子通量水平

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has been gradually decreasing over the last 24 hours but remained above the 10pfu threshold. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to decline towards nominal levels during the next 24 hours.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：151，基於07個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 13 Feb 2024

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	146
10厘米太陽通量	195
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	015
估計地磁Ap指數	012
估計國際太陽黑子數	133 - 基於26個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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