查看星期五, 15 3月 2024歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2024 Mar 15 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	10公分通量	Ap
15 Mar 2024	127	010
16 Mar 2024	120	007
17 Mar 2024	115	007

太陽活動區和耀斑

There are seven active regions visible on the solar disk. NOAA AR 3599 is rotating over the west limb, but still producing most of the flaring activity. The strongest flare was a long duration C6.0 from this AR, peaking at 06:19 UTC. The remaining visible regions have simple magnetic field configuration (alpha or beta). More C-class flares are expected, M-class flares are possible.

日冕物質拋射

There were two partial halo CMEs observed in the latest coronagraph data. The first one was seen by LASCO C2 at 05:08 UTC on 14 March, with an angular width of about 140 degrees, directed towards the east. The second one, observed by LASCO C2 at 02:10 on 15 March with an angular width of 150 degrees and directed towards the west (related to flaring activity from NOAA AR 3599 over the west limb). Both of these eruptions occurred close to the limb but are mostly backsided, the corresponding ICMEs are not expected to arrive to the Earth. A narrower eruption was seen at 09:18 UT on 14 March in LASCO C2, originating from a filament eruption and directed to the north; it is not expected to arrive at Earth.

太陽風

The Earth is inside slow solar wind, with speeds close to 410 km/s and an interplanetary magnetic field around 5 nT. Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to active both global and locally (NOAA_Kp up to 4 and K_BEL up to 4). Quiet to unsettled conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

質子通量水平

The 10 MeV proton flux at Earth increased as a result of the partial halo CME from 02:10 UTC, directed to the west and originated at NOAA AR 3599. At the moment of writing the flux is still below the 10 pfu threshold, but increasing.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux from GOES 16 was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal level and is expected to remain so.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：050，基於14個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 14 Mar 2024

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	091
10厘米太陽通量	127
AK Chambon La Forêt	022
AK Wingst	009
估計地磁Ap指數	010
估計國際太陽黑子數	069 - 基於24個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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