查看星期四, 14 3月 2024歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2024 Mar 14 1232 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
14 Mar 2024	128	016
15 Mar 2024	124	013
16 Mar 2024	120	007

太陽活動區和耀斑

There are seven active regions visible on the solar disk. NOAA AR 3599 remains the most active in terms of flaring, it produced several C-class and one M1.0 flare peaking at 06:04 UT. This region is rotating out of view over the west limb, but can still produce significant flares. The remaining visible regions have simple magnetic field configuration (alpha or beta). More C-class flares are expected, M-class flares are possible.

日冕物質拋射

A partial halo CME with angular width around 150 degrees was first seen by LASCO C2 at 08:57 on 13 March. There are no signatures of an eruption on the visible solar disk, so this CME is deemed backsided and will not affect the Earth. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations in the last 24 hours.

日冕洞

An equatorial (positive polarity) coronal hole crossed the central meridian on March 10. The high speed solar wind from this coronal hole may arrive at Earth today, although the bulk of the high speed stream may have passed south of the Earth.

太陽風

The Earth is inside slow solar wind, with speeds close to 450 km/s and an interplanetary magnetic field around 7 nT. The arrival of a high speed stream may create disturbed conditions today. There are low chances of seeing a glancing blow from the 10 March CME.

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled both global and locally (NOAA_Kp up to 3 and K_BEL up to 3). A glancing blow from the 10 March CME (with low probability) and a high speed stream could arrive today and cause up to minor storm levels.

質子通量水平

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux from GOES 16 was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal level and is expected to remain so.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：073，基於17個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 13 Mar 2024

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	093
10厘米太陽通量	128
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	009
估計地磁Ap指數	010
估計國際太陽黑子數	080 - 基於19個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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