查看星期六, 25 5月 2024歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2024 May 25 1232 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10公分通量	Ap
25 May 2024	163	007
26 May 2024	165	007
27 May 2024	167	016

太陽活動區和耀斑

There are six visible ARs on the solar disk. Solar activity has declined in the last 24 hours, since NOAA AR 3679 is rotating over the west limb. It still produced one M-class flare (the only one of the last 24 hours), M1.4 peaking at 20:25 UTC, and it may still produce significant flares as it rotates out of view. Old NOAA AR3663, which produced very high activity in the last rotation, is rotating back into view over the east limb. NOAA ARs 3685 and 3686 have potential for M-class flares For the next 24 hours M-class flares can still be expected.

日冕物質拋射

A partial halo CME was observed leaving the Sun at 13:25 UT (LASCO C2) on 24 May, directed towards the east with an angular width of about 150 degrees and speed close to 600 km/s. This CME is backsided and will not affect the Earth. A second wide CME (angular width around 80 degrees) lifted of the NW limb at 10:48 UT (LASCO C2) on 24 May, this CME is not believed to affect the Earth either.

太陽風

The solar wind at the Earth is slow, with speeds around 360 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 7 nT. Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet both at planetary and local levels (Kp and K_Bel up to 2).Similar conditions can be expected in the next 24 hours.

質子通量水平

The 10 MeV GOES-18 proton flux was below threshold in the past 24 hours. Since some of the regions producing the M-class flaring are close to the west limb, a proton event cannot be discarded in the next 24 hours.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux from GOES 16 was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at normal levels for the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：099，基於11個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 24 May 2024

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	135
10厘米太陽通量	163
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	012
估計地磁Ap指數	011
估計國際太陽黑子數	124 - 基於20個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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