查看星期二, 18 6月 2024歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2024 Jun 18 1232 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
18 Jun 2024	180	017
19 Jun 2024	180	010
20 Jun 2024	180	007

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at moderate levels, with multiple C-class flares and one M-class flare. The strongest flare was an M1.4 flare, which began at 19:57 UTC and peaked at 20:35 UTC on June 17, and originating from NOAA active region 3711. The most complex sunspot region NOAA-AR 3712 (beta-gamma- delta) produced several C-class flare. There are currently several sunspot groups on the solar disk, with NOAA AR 3711 and 3712 (beta-gamma-delta) showing the most flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares probable and a small chance of X-class flares.

日冕物質拋射

A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed by SOHO/LASCO-C2 at 11:00 UTC on June 17, with a projected speed ranging from 500 km/s to 700 km/s. This halo-CME was likely due to several CMEs occurring simultaneously. The CME directed southwest is associated with the M1.6 flare from NOAA active region 3712, which peaked at 10:46 UTC on June 17. The other parts of the halo CME appear to be on the far side of the Sun. Given the position of NOAA active region 3712 near the central meridian, and the south-southwest direction of the CME we expect at most an glacing glow reaching Earth, with relatively minor impact on Earth on Jun 20-21. Later, on June 17 at approximately 20:20 UTC another halo CME was observed by SOHO/LASCO-C2. This event likely resulted also from multiple CMEs erupting simultaneously. The southwest-directed part is associated with the M1.4 flare, which began at 19:57 UTC and peaked at 20:35 UTC on June 17, originating from NOAA active region 3711. The other component of the halo CME is believed to be on the far side of the Sun. Given NOAA active region 3711's position at longitude 56 on the west side, the associated westward CME is not expected to have an Earth-directed component.

日冕洞

A large north mid-latitude north coronal hole with negative polarity is crossing the central meridian.

太陽風

Solar wind conditions were enhanced in the last 24 hours due to the expected arrival of the high-speed stream from the equatorial, positive polarity coronal hole. The solar wind speed increase up to 600 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was around 11 nT and the Bz component varied between -10.4 nT and 9.4 nT. The solar wind conditions are expected remain elevated for the following days.

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions were at unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 4, K BEL 4) due to the expected arrival of the high-speed stream from the equatorial, positive polarity coronal hole. Mostly nsettled conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

質子通量水平

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level and decrease over the next 24 hours.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：144，基於08個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 17 Jun 2024

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	180
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	018
估計地磁Ap指數	016
估計國際太陽黑子數	140 - 基於24個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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