查看星期一, 15 7月 2024歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2024 Jul 15 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
15 Jul 2024	229	008
16 Jul 2024	225	010
17 Jul 2024	220	003

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity was moderate during the last 24 hours with three M-class flares detected during the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3738 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma- Delta, Catania sunspot group 85) produced all of the M-class flaring activity (namely an M1.0 at 14 Jul 20:57 UTC, an M1.2 at 15 Jul 03:35 UTC, and an M2.7 at 15 Jul 09:37 UTC) and most of the C-class flares. Bright C-class flares were also produced by NOAA AR 3751 (a C7 at 14 Jul 21:26 UTC) and NOAA AR 3744 (a C8 at 14 Jul 21:58 UTC). Further M-class flaring activity is expected from NOAA AR 3738 with a small chance of an X-flare in the next 24 hours.

日冕物質拋射

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours.

日冕洞

A northern Coronal Hole (CH) with negative polarity stared crossing the central meridian during the past 24 hours. An associated High Speed Stream (HSS) is expected to become geo-effective on 18 Jul.

太陽風

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions were typical of the slow SW regime during the last 24 hours. The SW speed varied between 270 and 330 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) ranged between 1 and 6 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) fluctuated between -3 and 4 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was mostly directed away from the Sun in the past 24 hours. A high speed stream related to a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole that crossed the central meridian on July 10 is expected to arrive in the next 24 hours.

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions were globally quiet (NOAA Kp 1- to 2), while locally they had a brief period of unsettled conditions (K BEL 1-3) during the last 24 hours. They are expected to continue at quiet levels and possibly rise to unsettled levels due to the expected arrival of a High Speed Stream (HSS) in the next 24 hours.

質子通量水平

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so, although there is a small chance of a proton event in the next 24 hours.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was at nominal levels during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at very low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：240，基於21個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 14 Jul 2024

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	234
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	008
估計地磁Ap指數	007
估計國際太陽黑子數	220 - 基於28個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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