查看星期四, 15 8月 2024歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2024 Aug 15 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
15 Aug 2024	240	007
16 Aug 2024	236	014
17 Aug 2024	230	010

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels, with three M-class flare recorded. The largest flare was a M5.26-flare, with peak time 15:49 UTC on August 14 and is associated with NOAA AR 3784 (beta-gamma-delta). The second largest flare was a M1.13-flare, with peak time 03:48 UTC on August 15 and is associated with NOAA AR 3780 (beta-gamma-delta). There are currently 10 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3780 (beta-gamma- delta) and NOAA AR 3784 (beta-gamma-delta) are the largest, most magnetically complex regions on disk and produced most of the flaring activity. NOAA AR 3789 (beta) has emerged on the north-east quadrant of the Sun. NOAA AR 3787 has turned into a plage region. The other regions were stable and quiet. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares very likely and a chance for an X-class flare.

日冕物質拋射

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images. Further analyses of the CMEs observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data at 10:12 UTC on August 13 and at 04:50 UTC on August 14 show that no impact is expected at Earth. The partial halo CME observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data around 09:50 UTC on August 14 that was associated with a X1.11-flare, with peak time 06:40 UTC on August 14 is expected to arrive at earth on August 18.

日冕洞

A negative polarity mid-latitude coronal hole is continuums to transit the central meridian in the northern hemisphere. It’s possible that the associated high-speed stream arrives to Earth around August 16. A second positive high-latitude polarity coronal hole has started transitioning the central meridian in the southern hemisphere. For this coronal hole, no impact at Earth is expected from its associated high-speed stream.

太陽風

The solar wind conditions reflected a slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed varied between 335 km/s to 432 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field varied between 5 nT and 9 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -5 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) with periods in the positive. In the next 24 hours, the solar wind is can become perturbed due to the possible arrival of a high-speed stream on August 16.

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 1 - 3 and K BEL 1 - 3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to active levels in the next 24 hours.

質子通量水平

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：157，基於16個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 14 Aug 2024

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	248
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	011
估計地磁Ap指數	016
估計國際太陽黑子數	179 - 基於17個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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