查看星期五, 16 8月 2024歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2024 Aug 16 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
16 Aug 2024	217	010
17 Aug 2024	213	011
18 Aug 2024	209	015

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels. The largest flare was a C7.8-flare, with peak time 17:35 UTC on August 15 and is associated with NOAA AR 3786 (beta). There are currently 9 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3780 (beta-gamma-delta) and NOAA AR 3784 (beta-gamma-delta) are the largest and most magnetically complex regions on disk. NOAA AR 3780 and NOAA AR 3781 have started to rotate over the west limb. NOAA AR 3789 has turned into a plage region. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares very likely and a small chance for an X-class flare.

日冕物質拋射

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

日冕洞

A positive high-latitude polarity coronal hole is transitioning the central meridian in the southern hemisphere. For this coronal hole, no impact at Earth is expected from its associated high-speed stream.

太陽風

The solar wind conditions reflected a slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed varied between 319 km/s to 382 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field varied between 2 nT and 9 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -6 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) with periods in the positive. Slow solar wind conditions are expected to continue over the next 24 hours. The solar wind is expected to become perturbed late on August 17 or on August 18 due to the expected arrival of an ICME.

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 1 - 3 and K BEL 1 - 3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels in the next 24 hours.

質子通量水平

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：201，基於10個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 15 Aug 2024

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	227
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	006
估計地磁Ap指數	008
估計國際太陽黑子數	164 - 基於23個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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