查看星期六, 17 8月 2024歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2024 Aug 17 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
17 Aug 2024	229	007
18 Aug 2024	233	017
19 Aug 2024	237	010

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels. The largest flare was a M1.65-flare, with peak time 10:30 UTC on August 17 and is associated with NOAA AR 3784 (beta- gamma-delta). The second largest flare was a M1.33-flare, with peak time 13:20 UTC on August 16 and is associated with an active region over the west limb. There are currently 10 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3784 (beta-gamma-delta) is the largest and most magnetically complex regions on disk. NOAA AR 3790 (beta-gamma) has produces most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 3786 (beta) has started to rotate over the west limb. NOAA AR 3782 has turned into a plage region. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares very likely and a small chance for an X-class flare.

日冕物質拋射

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

太陽風

The solar wind conditions reflected a slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed varied between 306 km/s to 363 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field varied between 2 nT and 7 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -5 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) with periods in the positive. The solar wind is expected to become perturbed to the expected arrival of an CME from August 14.

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 1 - 3 and K BEL 1 - 3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to reach active levels in the next 24 hours.

質子通量水平

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：206，基於14個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 16 Aug 2024

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	225
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	008
估計地磁Ap指數	008
估計國際太陽黑子數	203 - 基於13個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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