查看星期一, 14 10月 2024歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2024 Oct 14 1232 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
14 Oct 2024	193	008
15 Oct 2024	193	007
16 Oct 2024	190	007

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with 1 M-class flare identified. The largest flare was a M3.4 flare (SIDC Flare 2285) peaking on October 14 at 00:17 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 217 (NOAA Active Regions 3784, 3814, 3848). A total of 7 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. The most complex regions are SIDC Sunspot groups 217, 281 and 283 (NOAA AR 3848, 3852 and 3854) all magnetic type beta-gamma. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

日冕物質拋射

No new Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

日冕洞

A positive polarity mid-latitude coronal hole started to cross the central meridian. A high-speed stream from this coronal hole may impact the Earth/enhance the solar wind environment near Earth on Oktober 17.

太陽風

The solar wind speed values continued to decreased from around 500 km/s to 390 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was around 5 nT with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -2 nT. No enhancement of the sw speed and magnetic field is expected in the next 24h.

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to active (both NOAA Kp and local K Belgium 1-4) over the past 24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

質子通量水平

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next days.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and, even if a slight increase may be observed, it is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：138，基於08個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 13 Oct 2024

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	195
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	006
估計地磁Ap指數	006
估計國際太陽黑子數	139 - 基於17個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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