查看星期二, 15 10月 2024歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2024 Oct 15 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
15 Oct 2024	181	008
16 Oct 2024	175	007
17 Oct 2024	170	017

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours with 3 M-class flares. The largest flare was a M1.9 flare peaking on October 15 at 02:13 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 283 (NOAA Active Region 3854).There are currently 8 numbered active regions on the visible disk. The most complex regions are SIDC SGs 281 and 283 (NOAA AR 3852 and 3854) all magnetic type beta-gamma. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected and M-class flares probable and a low chance of X-class flares.

日冕物質拋射

No new Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

日冕洞

A positive polarity mid-latitude coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 68) continues to cross the central meridian. A high-speed stream from this coronal hole may impact the Earth/enhance the solar wind environment near Earth on October 17.

太陽風

The solar wind at the Earth remained mostly slow over the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed was around 400 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field was around 7nT. The Bz reached a minimum value of -5 nT. A small shock was observed on October 14 at 17:18 UTC. The interplanetary magnetic field jumped from 6 nT to 9 nT, with the Bz component changing from -2 nT to -4 nT. The solar wind speed jumped from 381 km/s to around 403 km/s. The solar wind density at the shock jumped from 2.62 ppcc to around 6.68 ppcc (ACE). Slow solar wind conditions are expected in the next 24h.

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet to active (Kp 4- and K Bel 3). Quiet conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

質子通量水平

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next days.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：116，基於12個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 14 Oct 2024

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	161
10厘米太陽通量	182
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	008
估計地磁Ap指數	008
估計國際太陽黑子數	139 - 基於16個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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