查看星期五, 18 10月 2024歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2024 Oct 18 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
18 Oct 2024	172	012
19 Oct 2024	175	017
20 Oct 2024	175	007

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a C6.6-flare, with peak time 14:27 UTC on October 17 2024, from SIDC Sunspot Group 290 NOAA AR 3860 (beta). There are currently 8 numbered active regions on the visible disk. SIDC Sunspot group 285 (NOAA AR 3856) is the most complex AR (beta-gamma-delta).The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the coming day with C-class flares expected and M-class flares probable and a chance of X-class flares.

日冕物質拋射

No new Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

日冕洞

The small equatorial positive polarity mid-latitude coronal hole crossed the central meridian. A high-speed stream from this coronal hole may enhance the solar wind environment near Earth on October 21.

太陽風

The solar wind at the Earth is slow. The solar wind speed decreased from around 400 km/s to 370 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 8 nT with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -7 nT. No enhancement of the solar wind speed and magnetic field is expected in the next 24h.

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (both NOAA Kp and local K Belgium 3) over the past 24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

質子通量水平

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next days.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 was shortly above the 1000 pfu alert threshold on OCT17 21:30 UTC, and has a small chance to exceed this level again shortly during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：126，基於08個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 17 Oct 2024

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	179
10厘米太陽通量	174
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	010
估計地磁Ap指數	010
估計國際太陽黑子數	143 - 基於20個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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