查看星期六, 19 10月 2024歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2024 Oct 19 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
19 Oct 2024	170	018
20 Oct 2024	175	017
21 Oct 2024	175	022

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours with three M-class flares all from SIDC Sunspot Group (SG) 283 (NOAA AR 3854). The largest flare was a M6.5-flare, with peak time 06:56 UTC on October 19 2024, from SIDC Sunspot Group 283 NOAA AR 3854 (beta-gamma). There are currently 10 numbered active regions on the visible disk. SIDC Sunspot group 290 (NOAA AR 3856) is the most complex AR (beta- gamma-delta).The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the coming day with C-class flares expected and M-class flares probable and a chance of X-class flares.

日冕物質拋射

No new Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

日冕洞

The small equatorial positive polarity mid-latitude coronal hole has finished crossing the central meridian. A high-speed stream from this coronal hole may enhance the solar wind environment near Earth on October 21.

太陽風

The solar wind at the Earth is slow, with a speed that slightly increased from around 360 to 440 km/s and with a interplanetary magnetic field increased from around 9 nT to around 12 nT and the Bz reaching a minimum value of -11 nT. Slow solar wind conditions are expected for the next 24h.

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions were unsettled to active and reached minor storm levels (Kp=4,67) between 00:00 and 03:00 OCT 19.

質子通量水平

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next days.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：132，基於07個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 18 Oct 2024

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	165
AK Chambon La Forêt	036
AK Wingst	017
估計地磁Ap指數	017
估計國際太陽黑子數	134 - 基於15個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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