查看星期五, 29 11月 2024歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2024 Nov 29 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
29 Nov 2024	213	004
30 Nov 2024	208	020
01 Dec 2024	205	015

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only five C-class flares identified. SIDC Sunspot Group 217 (NOAA Active Region [AR] 3908) produced two among which the brightest flare: a C5 on 29 Nov at 03:01 UTC (SIDC flare 2748). Two other flares were associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 323 (NOAA AR 3906) and the last flare of the past 24 hours was from SIDC Sunspot Group 305 (NOAA AR 3912). M-class flaring activity is expected for the next 24 hours mostly from SIDC Sunspot Groups 323, 322, and 302 (NOAA AR 3910). A small chance of an X-class flare in the next 24 hours still exists.

日冕物質拋射

A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in LASCO C2/SOHO images as launched on 29 Nov at 19:24 UTC. It is expected to become geo-effective on the first half of 30 Nov.

太陽風

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions were typical of the slow SW regime during the last 24 hours with the exception of a minor magnetic disturbance. The SW speed varied between from 330 km/h and 470 km/h in the last 24 hours. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) ranged between 1 and 10 nT with the exception of a disturbance that lasted several hours and peaked at 17 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) registered values between -9 and 14 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominately directed towards the Sun during the past 24 hours. A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is expected to arrive in the next 24 hours and cause a disturbance to the SW conditions.

地磁

During the last 24 hours geomagnetic conditions were globally quiet (NOAA Kp 0+ to 2+), while locally they were quiet with a very brief period of unsettled conditions (K BEL 1 to 3). In the next 24 hours a Coronal Mass Ejection is expected to arrive. The geomagnetic conditions are expected to reach active to minor storm levels both globally and locally.

質子通量水平

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is likely to remain so. However, there is still a small chance of a proton even in the next 24 hours.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：158，基於15個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 28 Nov 2024

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	213
10厘米太陽通量	214
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	003
估計地磁Ap指數	002
估計國際太陽黑子數	174 - 基於19個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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