查看星期六, 30 11月 2024歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2024 Nov 30 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
30 Nov 2024	208	011
01 Dec 2024	204	007
02 Dec 2024	200	005

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity was low but frequent over the past 24 hours, with about a dozen C-class flares identified. SIDC Sunspot Group 323 (NOAA Active Region [AR] 3906) produced half of the flaring activity, including the brightest flare, a C9 on 30 Nov at 09:06 UTC (SIDC flare 2763). SIDC Sunspot Group 305 (NOAA Active Region 3912) produced the second brightest flare, a C5 on Nov 30 at 06:00 UTC, while SIDC Sunspot Group 322 (NOAA AR 3905) produced three C-class flares during the past 24 hours. M-class flaring activity is still expected, either from SIDC Sunspot Group 323, 302, or 322 in the next 24 hours. A small chance of an X-class flare in the next 24 hours still exists.

日冕物質拋射

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours. A partial CME observed by LASCO-C2/SOHO as launched on 29 Nov at 10:16 UTC appears to be a back-sided event and thus not geo-effective.

太陽風

During the past 24 hours the Solar Wind (SW) conditions were affected by the arrival of a weak Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) on 29 Nov around 17:00 UTC that lasted until 30 Nov 05:30 UTC. As predicted the resulted disturbance was relatively minor. The SW speed increased from 350 to 430 km/s as a result of the arrival, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) raised from 4 to 12 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) ranged between -10 and 10 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was directed away from the Sun until the arrival of the CME and then fluctuated between the two directions. The effects of the CME have now subsided and the SW conditions are expected to be in the slow SW regime in the next 24 hours.

地磁

During the last 24 hours global geomagnetic conditions reached the minor storm level (NOAA Kp 5-) on 30 Nov from 00:00 to 03:00 UTC, while for the rest of the time they were at quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 3- to 1-). The local geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to active levels (K BEL 1 to 4) during the same period. Both global and local conditions are expected to drop to unsettled to quiet levels in the next 24 hours.

質子通量水平

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is likely to remain so. However, there is still a small chance of a proton even in the next 24 hours.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：124，基於15個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 29 Nov 2024

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	220
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	008
估計地磁Ap指數	007
估計國際太陽黑子數	161 - 基於22個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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