查看星期日, 8 12月 2024歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2024 Dec 08 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
08 Dec 2024	187	007
09 Dec 2024	187	012
10 Dec 2024	185	024

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity reached high levels, with several C-class flares, two M-class flares, and one X-class flare recorded over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an X2.2 flare (SIDC Flare 2856), which peaked at 09:06 UTC on December 8. It was associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 305 (NOAA Active Region 3912; beta- gamma), that was responsible for most of the flaring activity observed during this period together with SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA 3917; beta- delta). Associated type II radio emissions were detected at 09:05 UTC during the flaring activity. There are currently six numbered active regions visible on the solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA 3917; beta- delta) produced two M-class flares: an M3.2 flare (SIDC Flare 2846), peaking at 22:15 UTC on December 7, and an M2.3 flare (SIDC Flare 2841), peaking at 13:08 UTC on December 7. SIDC Sunspot Group 302 (NOAA Active Region 3910; alpha) and SIDC Sunspot Group 331 (NOAA Active Region 3918; alpha) are currently approaching the west limb but have remained quiet. A new, currently unnumbered active region has rotated onto the disk from the east limb, located in the northeast quadrant. Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and have not shown any significant flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and M-class flares possible.

日冕物質拋射

A coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph data starting at 09:24 UTC on December 8. The CME is primarily directed to the west from Earth's perspective and is likely associated with the X2.2 flare. Further analysis is ongoing to determine if this CME has Earth-directed components. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

太陽風

At the beginning of the period, the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed ranged between 350 km/s and 370 km/ and the interplanetary magnetic field remained below 4 nT. Solar wind conditions became slightly disturbed around 21:30 UTC on December 7, with the total interplanetary magnetic field reaching up to 11 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field was predominantly negative, reaching a minimum value of -6 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field orientation switched from the negative sector (field directed towards the Sun) to the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). A gradual return to slow solar wind conditions is expected during the next days, with a chance of a weak enhancement on Dec 10 due to possible arrival of a high-speed stream from a northern, positive polarity coronal hole, that started to the central meridian on December 6.

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet both globally and locally over Belgium (NOAA Kp: 1- to 2, K-Bel: 1 to 2). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next days, with a chance of isolated active periods on December 10 due to the possible arrival of a high-speed stream (HSS).

質子通量水平

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton was below the 10 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours. There is a small chance that the proton flux may increase in response to strong flaring from SIDC Sunspot Group 305 (NOAA Active Region 3912).

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and it is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：147，基於06個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 07 Dec 2024

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	183
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	005
估計地磁Ap指數	004
估計國際太陽黑子數	127 - 基於10個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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