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SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2025 Feb 15 1233 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
15 Feb 2025	177	017
16 Feb 2025	179	015
17 Feb 2025	181	007

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at moderate levels, with one M-class flare and multiple C-class flares. The largest flare was an M1.8 flare (SIDC Flare 3602) peaking at 20:57 UTC on February 14, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 346 (NOAA Active Region 3990, magnetic type beta-gamma). There are currently ten numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex ones are SIDC Sunspot Group 346 and 399 (NOAA Active Regions 3990 and 3992), both of magnetic type beta-gamma. SIDC Sunspot Group 404 (NOAA Active Region 3997, magnetic type beta) has emerged in the northeast quadrant. SIDC Sunspot Group 405 (NOAA Active Region 3996, magnetic type beta) has rotated on disk from the east limb, in the southeast quadrant. Two currently unnumbered active regions have emerged in the northwest quadrant. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares probable.

日冕物質拋射

Three Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery. The first one was observed around 22:00 UTC on February 14, lifting off the northeast limb. The second CME was observed around 01:36 UTC lifting off the northeast limb. The source region for both CMEs is likely in the northeast quadrant, at the approximate location E34N15, possibly associated with eruptive activity observed in SDO/AIA304 at 21:24 UTC on February 14 and 01:25 UTC on February 15. A third CME, likely different from the second, was observed around 01:25 UTC lifting off the southeast limb. No clear source region has been identified on the visible disk. Preliminary analysis suggests that they are not going to impact the Earth. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

太陽風

The solar wind conditions (ACE & DSCOVR) were enhanced during the last 24 hours, under the influence of the high-speed stream from the southern, negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 87). Speed values increased from 500 km/s to around 570 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field values were around 8-9 nT. The Bz component varied between -9 nT and 6 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was predominantly in the negative sector. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24-48 hours, due to the influence of the high-speed stream from the southern, negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 87).

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions globally were at minor storm levels (NOAA Kp 5-) between 12:00 UTC and 15:00 UTC on February 14, then decreasing to mostly active levels (NOAA Kp 4- to 4) and returned to minor storm levels between 09:00 UTC and 12:00 UTC on February 15. Geomagnetic conditions locally reached active levels (K Bel 4) between 14:00 UTC and 18:00 UTC on February 14 and between 21:00 UTC on February 14 and 00:00 UTC on February 15. Mostly unsettled to active conditions (NOAA Kp 3-4, K Bel 3-4), with possible minor storm intervals (NOAA Kp 5, K Bel 5) are expected globally and locally over the next 24 hours, in response to the high-speed stream from the southern, negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 87).

質子通量水平

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was above the threshold level between 12:15 UTC and 19:35 UTC on February 14. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 was above the threshold level between 14:50 UTC on February 14 and 02:00 UTC on February 15. The 24-hour electron fluence is currently at moderate levels and is to remain so in the next 24 hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：167，基於10個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 14 Feb 2025

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	162
10厘米太陽通量	///
AK Chambon La Forêt	035
AK Wingst	025
估計地磁Ap指數	028
估計國際太陽黑子數	145 - 基於19個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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