發布時間: 2025 Mar 14 1231 UTC
C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
Quiet
| 10公分通量 | Ap | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar 2025 | 170 | 028 |
| 15 Mar 2025 | 175 | 007 |
| 16 Mar 2025 | 178 | 007 |
Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. The largest flare was a C7.9 flare (SIDC Flare 3832) peaking on March 13 at 19:35 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 428 (NOAA Active Region 4019). A total of 11 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 398 (NOAA Active Region 4021) and SIDC Sunspot Group 428 (NOAA Active Region 4019) have the most complex magnetic configuration (Beta-Delta). Solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a chance for M-class flares.
No new Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.
A small negative polarity mid-latitude coronal hole first reached the central meridian mid March 13. A high-speed stream from this coronal hole may enhance the solar wind environment near Earth on March 16.
Earth continued to be under the influence of high speed streams (HSS). The solar wind speed ranged from 500 km/s to 560 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was around 8 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -7 nT. In the next 24 hours, we expect a gradual transition from fast to slow solar wind.
Geomagnetic conditions were mainly active to minor storm levels, but reached moderate storm levels during an isolated period beginning of March 14 (Kp 6-). Unsettled are expected in the next 24 hours.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next days.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold for most of the time during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain above the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.
今日估計的國際太陽黑子數(ISN):171,基於11個觀測站。
| 卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數 | /// |
| 10厘米太陽通量 | 175 |
| AK Chambon La Forêt | 043 |
| AK Wingst | 031 |
| 估計地磁Ap指數 | 037 |
| 估計國際太陽黑子數 | 165 - 基於16個觀測站 |
| 日 | 開始 | 最大值 | 結束 | 位置 | 強度 | OP | 10cm | 卡塔尼亞天體物理觀測站/美國國家海洋暨大氣管理局 | 電波爆發類型 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 無 | ||||||||||
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