太陽和地磁活動公告 - 星期三, 26 2月 2025

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SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2025 Feb 26 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10公分通量	Ap
26 Feb 2025	192	016
27 Feb 2025	190	023
28 Feb 2025	188	022

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours with only C-class flared observed. The strongest activity was a C4.2 flare (SIDC Flare 3710) with peak time 17:58 UTC on Feb 25, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 408 (NOAA Active Region 3998). A total of 11 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 408 remained the largest and most complex region, classified as magnetic type beta-gamma-delta. The other two notable regions on the visible solar disc being SIDC Sunspot Group 368 (NOAA Active Region 4006) and SIDC Sunspot Group 409 (NOAA Active Region 4000), both classified as magnetic type beta-gamma. The remaining active regions are mostly simple and have either exhibited decay and/or remained quiet. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with likely M-class flares and a small chance for X-class flares.

日冕物質拋射

A wide westward coronal mass ejection (CME) associated to the M3.6 flare produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 408 (NOAA Active Region 3998) on Feb 25 was first visible in the LASCO/C2 imagery around 12:30 UTC on Feb 25. The CME is estimated to miss the Earth . A filament located between 15 and 30 degrees west from the central meridian has erupted around 06:00 UTC on Feb 26. An associated narrow westward CME is now visible in the LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery and is currently being analysed for any potential impact at Earth. No other Earth-directed CME are observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

日冕洞

Three positive polarity coronal holes have crossed the central meridian over the past 24 hours. High speed streams emanating from these coronal holes might be expected at Earth on Feb 28th.

太陽風

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected moderately disturbed solar wind conditions. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field, B, reached 17.6 nT with a minimum Bz of -10 nT. The solar wind speed was smoothly varying between 344 km/s and 438 km/s. The B field phi angle has switched orientation from the negative to the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain disturbed over the next 24 hours with possible mild glancing blow arrivals on Feb26-Feb 27 and expected high speed stream arrival on Feb 28.

地磁

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to active. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with possible isolated minor storm levels. Unsettled to active conditions with likely minor storm levels and chances for moderate geomagnetic storms might be expected on Feb 28 with anticipated combined high speed stream arrivals.

質子通量水平

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has decreased below the 10 pfu minor radiation storm threshold and is currently on a decreasing trend. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to continue to decrease towards background levels over the next 24 hours. A warning condition has been raised due to the remaining chances for new enhancements related to possible solar eruptive activity from the three complex active regions on the visible solar disc.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 10 MeV GOES 16 and GOES 18 electron flux has been below the 1000 pfu threshold over the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：113，基於14個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 25 Feb 2025

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	190
10厘米太陽通量	190
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	008
估計地磁Ap指數	009
估計國際太陽黑子數	165 - 基於10個觀測站