查看星期四, 27 2月 2025歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2025 Feb 27 1243 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
27 Feb 2025	178	039
28 Feb 2025	176	039
01 Mar 2025	176	025

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. A total of 10 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. The flaring activity was dominated by SIDC Sunspot Group 405 (NOAA Active Region 3996) which has a beta magnetic type configuration and is currently located at the west limb. SIDC Sunspot Group 368 (NOAA Active Region 4006), SIDC Sunspot Group 408 (NOAA Active Region 3998) and SIDC Sunspot Group 409 (NOAA Active Region 4000) are all classified as magnetic type beta-gamma, but only SIDC Sunspot Group 408 has contributed to the low levels of activity. The remaining active regions are mostly simple and have either exhibited decay and/or remained quiet. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with likely M-class flares and a small chance for an isolated X-class flaring.

日冕物質拋射

The CME related to the on disc filament eruption as reported on Feb 26 is estimated to have a small Earth-directed component. A possible glancing blow from it might be expected on Feb 28. It will most probably be mixed within the ongoing high speed stream and might remain undistinguishable in the in situ solar wind data. No other Earth-directed CME are observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

日冕洞

One of the three positive polarity coronal holes, which first crossed the central meridian on Feb 25 is still residing on the central meridian. The high speed streams emanating from these coronal holes is expected to continuously impact the Earth over the next 3-4 days.

太陽風

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected moderately disturbed solar wind conditions related to a high speed stream (HSS) arrival. This appears to be an early arrival of the HSS related to several positive polarity coronal holes which first crossed the central meridian on Feb 25. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field, B, reached 20 nT with a minimum Bz of -11.5 nT. The solar wind speed reached a maximum of 676 km/s. The B field phi angle remained predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain disturbed over the next few days under the ongoing influence of high speed streams, possibly mixed with a glancing blow arrival on Feb 28.

地磁

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were predominantly quiet to active with a single minor storm levels reached over Belgium in the interval 11-12 UTC on Feb 27. Moderate storm conditions were registered globally in the interval 09-12 UTC on Feb 27 with NOAA Kp reaching 5.76. Minor to moderate geomagnetic storms might be expected on Feb 27 and Feb 28 with an ongoing high speed stream arrival and possible glancing blow ICME arrival on Feb 28.

質子通量水平

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has continued to decrease towards background levels and is expected to be at nominal levels over the next 24 hours.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 10 MeV GOES 16 and GOES 18 electron flux has been below the 1000 pfu threshold over the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours and start increasing in the upcoming days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours and might increase towards moderate levels on Mar 01.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：126，基於14個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 26 Feb 2025

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	180
AK Chambon La Forêt	029
AK Wingst	014
估計地磁Ap指數	016
估計國際太陽黑子數	114 - 基於18個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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