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SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2025 Sep 28 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
28 Sep 2025	166	013
29 Sep 2025	165	005
30 Sep 2025	163	007

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with one M-class flare. The strongest flare was a M6.4 flare (SIDC Flare 5601) peaking at 08:43 UTC on September 28, which was associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 653 (NOAA Active Region 4232, magnetic type beta-gamma). There are currently ten numbered active regions on the solar disk. Sunspot Group 653 (NOAA Active Region 4232) is the most complex. SIDC Sunspot Groups 650, 651 (NOAA Active Regions 4229, 4231) have rotated over the west limb. SIDC Sunspot Group 655 (NOAA Active Region 4234, magnetic type alpha) has emerged in the southeast quadrant. SIDC Sunspot Group 656 (NOAA Active Region 4235, magnetic type beta) and SIDC Sunspot Group 657 have emerged in the northeast quadrant. Sunspot Group 654 decayed into a plage region. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected and M-class flares likely.

日冕物質拋射

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in the available coronagraph imagery in the last 24 hours.

太陽風

The solar wind conditions (ACE) initially reflected slow solar wind conditions and then showed a mild enhancement, possibly due to the high-speed stream associated with the small, equatorial, negative polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 133) that crossed the central meridian on September 25. Speed values increased from approximately 350 km/s to approximately 440 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field values increased from 5 nT to 11 nT. The Bz component varied between -8 nT and 11 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was mostly in the negative sector. Slow solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions globally and locally were mostly at quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 1 to 3, K BEL 1 to 3). Mostly quiet conditions, with possible unsettled intervals, are expected globally and locally over the next 24 hours.

質子通量水平

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold between 16:00 UTC and 22:00 UTC on September 27 and remained below the threshold for the rest of the last 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 19 was over the 1000 pfu threshold until 20:00 UTC on September 27. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be below the 1000 pfu threshold levels in the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was mostly at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：164，基於17個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 27 Sep 2025

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	164
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	006
估計地磁Ap指數	005
估計國際太陽黑子數	143 - 基於18個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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