發布時間: 2026 Jan 13 1231 UTC
C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
Quiet
| 10公分通量 | Ap | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 Jan 2026 | 113 | 023 |
| 14 Jan 2026 | 114 | 012 |
| 15 Jan 2026 | 114 | 007 |
Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a C1.9 flare peaking on January 13 at 10:18 UTC, originated from a region from behind the east limb. A total of 3 numbered sunspot groups are currently on the disk, all having alpha or beta magnetic configuration. Solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a chance for M-class flares.
No new Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images. The CME detected in LASCO C2 data on JAN 12 2026 05:48 UTC, directed to the north east, is back sided and is not expected to impact Earth.
Fast solar wind conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours. The solar wind velocity varied between 520 to 590 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was around 8nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -6 nT. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain elevated due to the continuation of the high-speed streams from negative polarity coronal holes (SIDC Coronal Hole 137 and SIDC Coronal Hole 142).
Geomagnetic conditions reached active levels globally and locally (Kp 4, K bel 4) between Jan 12 21:00 UTC and Jan 13 03:00 UTC. Mostly unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next day due to the ongoing high speed stream.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next days.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the 1000 pfu threshold for the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate level and is expected to remain so in the next days.
今日估計的國際太陽黑子數(ISN):048,基於06個觀測站。
| 卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數 | 044 |
| 10厘米太陽通量 | 113 |
| AK Chambon La Forêt | 032 |
| AK Wingst | 021 |
| 估計地磁Ap指數 | 023 |
| 估計國際太陽黑子數 | 056 - 基於12個觀測站 |
| 日 | 開始 | 最大值 | 結束 | 位置 | 強度 | OP | 10cm | 卡塔尼亞天體物理觀測站/美國國家海洋暨大氣管理局 | 電波爆發類型 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 無 | ||||||||||
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| 上一個 X-閃焰 | 24/04/2026 | X2.5 |
| 上一個 M-閃焰 | 17/05/2026 | M1.4 |
| 上一個 地球磁爆 | 16/05/2026 | Kp6- (G2) |
| 無黑子天數 | |
|---|---|
| 過去 365 天內 | 3天 |
| 2026 | 3天 (2%) |
| 上一個無黑子日 | 24/02/2026 |
| 黑子數月平均 | |
|---|---|
| 4月 2026 | 79.3 -6.6 |
| 5月 2026 | 90.4 +11.1 |
| 過去 30 天內 | 99.3 +8.3 |