發布時間: 2026 Feb 09 1253 UTC
C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Quiet
| 10公分通量 | Ap | |
|---|---|---|
| 09 Feb 2026 | 160 | 016 |
| 10 Feb 2026 | 156 | 017 |
| 11 Feb 2026 | 152 | 017 |
Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with 2 M-class flares identified. The largest flare was a M2.8 flare (SIDC Flare 6993) peaking on February 09 at 02:27 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 784 (NOAA Active Region 4366). A total of 8 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 784 (NOAA Active Region 4366) is the largest region on disk, the most magnetically complex (Beta-Gamma-Delta) and produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. This region is about to rotate over the western limb off the visible solar disk. Solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a chance for M-class flares.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours.
SIDC Coronal Hole 137 (mid-latitude coronal hole with a negative polarity) first reached the central meridian on February 09 and is now positioned on the eastern side of the Sun. (Other crossing times : December 15, November 18)
The solar wind speed at Earth is around 420 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 6 to 9 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum of -7 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun), with periods in the positive sector. In the next 24 hours a slow solar wind regime is expected.
The geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled globally and locally (Kp 1-3 & K BEL 1-3) in the last 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain at background levels over the next 24 hours.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-19 satellite was above the 1000 pfu threshold at the start of the period until November at 20:30 UTC. The GOES-18 satellite was above the 1000 pfu threshold between 15:10 UTC and 01:45 UTC on November 08. The 2 MeV electron flux is expected to cross the threshold again during the next 24 hour. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at normal levels over the next 24 hours.
今日估計的國際太陽黑子數(ISN):120,基於06個觀測站。
| 卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數 | /// |
| 10厘米太陽通量 | 167 |
| AK Chambon La Forêt | 012 |
| AK Wingst | 008 |
| 估計地磁Ap指數 | 008 |
| 估計國際太陽黑子數 | 151 - 基於17個觀測站 |
| 日 | 開始 | 最大值 | 結束 | 位置 | 強度 | OP | 10cm | 卡塔尼亞天體物理觀測站/美國國家海洋暨大氣管理局 | 電波爆發類型 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 | 1132 | 1143 | 1159 | ---- | M1.7 | 10/4366 | |||
| 08 | 1346 | 1353 | 1357 | ---- | M2.7 | 10/4366 | |||
| 09 | 0214 | 0227 | 0248 | ---- | M2.8 | 10/4366 |
由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理
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| 無黑子天數 | |
|---|---|
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