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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2013 Apr 13 1248 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)

Geomagnetismus

Severe geomagnetic storm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition

	10cm tok	Ap
13 Apr 2013	140	039
14 Apr 2013	142	045
15 Apr 2013	143	008

Bulletin

Catania sunspot groups 40 and 43 (NOAA ARs 1718 and 1719 respectively) show the signs of decay, although these two active regions (as well as Catania sunspot group 45, NOAA AR 1721) have beta-gamma configuration of the photospheric magnetic field. M3.3 flare was detected on April 12 peaking at 20:38 UT in the Catania sunspot group 40 (NOAA AR 1718). It was not associated with a CME. The delta sunspot in the Catania sunspot group 43 (NOAA AR 1719) does not exist anymore, so an X-flare (and an SEP event) is not very likely (although an Earth-directed CME remains possible). We expect further flaring activity on the M-level, with a non-negligible chance for an isolated X-class flare. The proton flux at energies above 10 MeV is currently below the SEP event threshold, although it still exceeds significantly the background level. In such a situation, a relatively small increase of the proton flux at the expected shock arrival may lead to crossing the SEP event threshold again. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 400 km/s) solar wind flow with average (around 4 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. We expect quiet geomagnetic conditions until the arrival (expected later today) of the interplanetary disturbance produced by the halo CME of April 11. The occurrence of a strong geomagnetic storm (K index around 7) will be probable.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 080, na základě 13 stanic.

Solární indexy za 12 Apr 2013

Wolfovo číslo Catania	125
10cm sluneční tok	138
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	005
Odhadovaný Ap	004
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	081 - Na základě 20 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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