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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2013 May 12 1221 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
12 May 2013	142	011
13 May 2013	142	010
14 May 2013	139	007

Bulletin

Solar activity has been eruptive during the past 24 hours, featuring eighteen C flares. The largest flare was released by NOAA AR 11746 and reached a C8.0 peak around 19:48 UT on May 11. More C flares and even M flares are likely within the next 48 hours, especially from NOAA AR 11744, 11745, and 11746. A large filament eruption took place near 40W 35N around 21:45 UT on May 11. An associated CME was registered by LASCO C2, STEREO COR2 A and B. A glancing blow from this CME is possible, with an expected arrival time at Earth in the first half of May 15. In the last 24 hours, the IMF has varied between 2.5 and 3.5 nT, while solar wind speeds have decreased from about 400 and to 360 km/s. In the second half of May 12, a weak coronal hole high speed stream may cause solar wind speeds to increase again up to 500 km/s. Geomagnetic activity has been at quiet levels (K Dourbes between 0 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 2) during the past 24 hours. Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes < 4) are expected for May 12 to 14, with a chance for active levels (K Dourbes = 4) in the second half of May 12, due to a weak coronal hole high speed stream.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 094, na základě 06 stanic.

Solární indexy za 11 May 2013

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	137
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	004
Odhadovaný Ap	003
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	089 - Na základě 17 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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