Prohlížíte si archiv pondělí 24. června 2013

Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2013 Jun 24 1302 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
24 Jun 2013	128	017
25 Jun 2013	128	019
26 Jun 2013	128	010

Bulletin

Solar activity has been active during the past 24 hours, featuring an M2.9 flare and two C flares, both from NOAA AR 11778. The M2.9 flare peaked at 20:56 UT on June 23, and the second C flare, peaking at 11:32 UT on June 24, was a C9.9 flare. More C flares are expected within the next 48 hours, with a high chance for an M flare from AR 11778. The 10 MeV protons were above the 10 pfu threshold from 20h UT on June 23 till 9h UT on June 24, and are slowly declining again. A large flare could however push the proton flux back above this threshold, which is why we issue a proton warning condition. The solar wind is still in a coronal hole high speed stream regime, with solar wind speeds gradually decreasing from around 600 km/s to approximately 550 km/s.The IMF ranged between 2 and 8 nT. Solar wind speeds are expected to remain high, but continue their gradual decrease on June 24, 25 and 26. Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to active levels (K Dourbes between 2 and 4; NOAA Kp between 1 and 2) during the past 24 hours. Quiet to active conditions (K Dourbes < 5) are expected for June 24 to 26.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 075, na základě 14 stanic.

Solární indexy za 23 Jun 2013

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	128
AK Chambon La Forêt	023
AK Wingst	026
Odhadovaný Ap	023
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	078 - Na základě 14 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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