Prohlížíte si archiv čtvrtek 24. října 2013

Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2013 Oct 24 1308 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
24 Oct 2013	156	015
25 Oct 2013	156	017
26 Oct 2013	151	007

Bulletin

There were six M flares and eleven C flares on the Sun during the past 24 hours. The brightest one was an M9.3 flare released by NOAA AR 11877 with peak time at 00:30 UT on October 24, and caused a Type II radio burst with estimated shock speed of 750 km/s. All C and M flares were produced either by NOAA AR 11875 or NOAA AR 11877, both of which are beta-gamma-delta regions with rapidly evolving topology. In the next 48 hours, X flares from either region are possible. Since both regions are near the central meridian, there is a substantial risk of halo CMEs and a warning condition for proton storms is issued. In the past 24 hours, solar wind has varied between about 310 and 350 km/s. In the same period, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field has varied between 5 and 8 nT. The M4.2 flare of October 22 was accompanied by a faint halo CME, which could deliver a glancing blow to Earth on October 27. Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels (K Dourbes between 0 and 3; NOAA Kp between 0 and 1) during the past 24 hours. Active conditions (K Dourbes = 4) with isolated minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 5) are possible in the second half of October 24 and on October 25, due to a possible glancing blow from the CME from October 22 (observed by LASCO C2 at 4:36 UT). Quiet conditions (K Dourbes < 4) are expected for October 26.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 105, na základě 13 stanic.

Solární indexy za 23 Oct 2013

Wolfovo číslo Catania	158
10cm sluneční tok	153
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	004
Odhadovaný Ap	003
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	089 - Na základě 18 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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