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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2014 Jan 04 1243 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
04 Jan 2014	192	005
05 Jan 2014	195	005
06 Jan 2014	195	004

Bulletin

Five C flares and three M flares were measured by GOES during the past 24 hours. The strongest flare was an M1.3 flare with a peak time on January 4 at 10:25 UTC. NOAA AR 1944 was responsible for most of the flaring activity. NOAA AR 1944 has shown some growth in size and number of sunspots. NOAA AR 1937 has also grown and produced one C4.0 flare peaking on January 3 at 18:35 UTC. The chances for C flares are high (90%). Also more M flares are possible (probability 50%), especially from NOAA AR 1944. There is a slight chance for an X flare (15%). We maintain the warning condition for proton events. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Solar wind speed measured by ACE varied from 450 to 550 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field is stable around 4 to 6 nT, with a fluctuating Bz- component varying between -6 and +5 nT. No signatures of any ICME arrival has been detected yet. Current geomagnetic conditions are quiet to unsettled (estimated NOAA Kp and K_Izmiran 1 to 3). Mainly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to continue.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 101, na základě 05 stanic.

Solární indexy za 03 Jan 2014

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	182
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	010
Odhadovaný Ap	010
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	107 - Na základě 17 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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