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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2014 Feb 25 1240 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	10cm tok	Ap
25 Feb 2014	171	007
26 Feb 2014	171	017
27 Feb 2014	171	007

Bulletin

A X4.9 flare peaked Feb 25 00:49. This event occurred in NOAA AR 1990 close to the Solar East limb. This active region has lived through several solar rotations under the names AR 1967, AR1944 and AR1918. Given its current proximity to the Solar East limb, we cannot estimate well its magnetic configuration and complexity. Continued strong flaring activity would nevertheless not come as a surprise. The X4.9 flare was associated with a gradual SEP event but the (still rising) fluxes did not reach the event thresholds yet. We estimate that the 10 pfu > 10 MeV threshold will eventually be crossed in the coming days, especially if another strong event occurs, and a solar proton event is thus forecasted. The X4.9 flare was also associated with a strong & fast partial halo CME. Given the location of its source on the Solar East limb, we do not expect this CME to become geoeffective but a 'glancing blow' cannot be excluded. Another important region to follow up is the activity complex consisting of NOAA1982-Cat46 and NOAA1981-Cat45. Although this complex is shrinking in size, its magnetic complexity is increasing and major flaring is expected. Also NOAA1986-Cat48 and NOAA1989-Cat50 are capable of isolated M-class flares. Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 123, na základě 07 stanic.

Solární indexy za 24 Feb 2014

Wolfovo číslo Catania	164
10cm sluneční tok	171
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	005
Odhadovaný Ap	005
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	117 - Na základě 23 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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