Prohlížíte si archiv čtvrtek 17. dubna 2014

Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2014 Apr 17 1326 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
17 Apr 2014	180	013
18 Apr 2014	184	007
19 Apr 2014	188	005

Bulletin

Eleven sunspot groups were reported by NOAA today. NOAA ARs 2035, 2036, and 2037 (Catania numbers 24, 25, and 26 respectively) maintain the beta-gamma configuration of the photospheric magnetic field. The strongest flare of the past 24 hours was the M1.0 flare peaking at 19:59 UT yesterday in the NOAA AR 2035 (Catania number 24). The flare was associated with an EIT wave and a weak coronal dimming, but the associated CME was narrow and is not expected to arrive at the Earth. We expect further flaring activity on the C-level, especially in the NOAA ARs 2035 and 2037 (Catania numbers 24 and 26 respectively) as well as in the NOAA AR 2042 (no Catania number yet) that yesterday appeared from behind the east solar limb, with a good chance for an M-class event. Since yesterday evening the Earth is situated inside a solar wind structure with an elevated interplanetary magnetic field magnitude (occasionally up to 10 nT). It may be a weak ICME or the compression region on the flank of an ICME that missed the Earth. The solar origin of this structure is not clear. The north-south magnetic field component Bz was not strong, so no significant geomagnetic disturbance resulted (K index stayed below 4). Currently the solar wind speed is around 380 km/s and the IMF magnitude is around 8 nT. We expect quiet to unsettled (K index up to 3) geomagnetic conditions, with active geomagnetic conditions (K = 4) possible, but unlikely.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 145, na základě 17 stanic.

Solární indexy za 16 Apr 2014

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	184
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	004
Odhadovaný Ap	004
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	139 - Na základě 29 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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