Prohlížíte si archiv čtvrtek 22. května 2014

Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2014 May 22 1243 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
22 May 2014	111	015
23 May 2014	113	014
24 May 2014	114	007

Bulletin

There was one C6.4 flare during the past 24 hours, released by NOAA AR 12072 with peak time at 03:10 UT on May 22. No new CMEs were observed. In the next 48 hours, the probability for C flares is high (85%, from NOAA AR 12071, 12072, 12073, and 12066) and for M flares around 20%, especially from NOAA AR 12071 and 12072. Around 19h UT on May 21, the phi angle of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) as observed by ACE changed from positive (away) to negative (toward), indicating an expected sector boundary crossing. At the same time, the magnitude of the IMF which had been fairly constant between 4 and 5 nT started fluctuating in a generally rising trend with current values reaching 8 nT. Over the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed was steady and low around 320 km/s until 9h UT on May 22, when it started increasing, probably due to the expected arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream. Current values lie around 370 km/s. Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions were quiet (K Dourbes between 0 and 2; NOAA Kp between 0 and 2). As an effect of the sector boundary crossing and the high speed stream arrival, quiet geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) with active periods (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on May 22 and 23. Quiet conditions are expected on May 24, with a slight chance for active conditions in case the Earth suffers a glancing blow from the CME of May 21.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 047, na základě 16 stanic.

Solární indexy za 21 May 2014

Wolfovo číslo Catania	101
10cm sluneční tok	114
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	002
Odhadovaný Ap	002
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	058 - Na základě 28 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

Všechny časy v UTC

<< Přejít na stránku s denním přehledem