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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2014 Aug 04 1209 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
04 Aug 2014	152	013
05 Aug 2014	155	007
06 Aug 2014	155	007

Bulletin

Flaring is currently at low C-class level. The largest flare since our last bulletin was reported to occur this morning in NOAA AR 2126 (CAT 27) with peak time 00:53 UT. This region is currently turning over the west limb, however we expect more C-flares with a chance for a low M-class flare, especially from NOAA regions 2130, 2132 and 2134. A small filament erupted in the western hemisphere, just south of the equator on August 3 around 18:09 UT. An associated narrow CME was observed in LASCO at 19:24 UT, but is not earth-directed. Two small disturbances were observed in the solar wind. The first one started on August 3 around 15:00 UT, and is probably related to the arrival of the CME associated with the M1.5 flare on August 1. The second disturbance started today around 06:00 UT and is likely related to a high speed wind stream originating from the coronal hole that passed the central meridian on August 1. In both cases the southward component of the magnetic field did not turn strongly negative and the solar wind speed remained low, resulting in only unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K=3). Active geomagnetic conditions (K=4) are possible today. We expect a return to quiet conditions after that.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 104, na základě 16 stanic.

Solární indexy za 03 Aug 2014

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	152
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	008
Odhadovaný Ap	007
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	105 - Na základě 27 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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