Prohlížíte si archiv pondělí 3. listopadu 2014

Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2014 Nov 03 1244 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
03 Nov 2014	128	011
04 Nov 2014	132	011
05 Nov 2014	136	007

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was dominated by a yet unnumbered region currently turning around the East limb. It produced the two largest flares of the period: a C9.4 flare peaking at 21:05 UT and an M2.2 flare peaking around 11:53 UT. Four C flares (all below C5) originated from Catania group 3 (NOAA AR 2201). NOAA AR 2203 grew in size and new sunspot emergence was observed in NOAA plage region 2197 (previous Catania group 97). Flaring at C level is expected to continue and M flares remain possible from the new region turning around the East limb. No Earth directed CME's were observed during the period. The >10 MeV proton flux as observed by GOES passed the event threshold a number of times for very short periods (5 to 10 minutes) at 21:10UT-21:15UT, 22:10UT-22:15UT, 22:30UT-22:40UT and 22:45UT-22:50UT. The proton flux remained below 11 pfu. The proton flux has been increasing and decreasing several times since November 1 at 14:30 UT. The sequence of several rises indicates the relation with several solar events. Further increases of the proton flux and in the next 24 hours are likely, with chances for a stronger proton event. Solar wind speed decreased during the period from close to 500 km/s after the start of the period to around 420 km/s currently. The total magnetic field also decreased from within the 3-7 nT range to the 1-4nT range, with the z-component not reaching below -4nT. Phi angle was variable. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (both NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 1-3). Under the influence of a coronal hole high speed stream, solar wind conditions may become slightly elevated in the next 24 to 48 hours with associated unsettled and possibly active geomagnetic conditions.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 086, na základě 11 stanic.

Solární indexy za 02 Nov 2014

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	124
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	008
Odhadovaný Ap	008
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	070 - Na základě 24 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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