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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2014 Dec 05 1229 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
05 Dec 2014	153	012
06 Dec 2014	149	019
07 Dec 2014	145	008

Bulletin

During last 24 hours nine C-class flares and two M-class flares were reported. Majority of the solar activity, including M-class flares, originated from the Catania sunspot group 24 (NOAA AR 2222) which still maintains beta-gamma configuration of the photospheric magnetic field. The strongest reported flare was a confined M6.1 flare (no associated CME observed) which peaked on 18:25 UT, on December 4. In the coming hours we expect C-class flares. Isolated M-class flares are also possible, in particular from the Catania sunspot group 24 (NOAA AR 2222) which is presently situated on the west solar hemisphere (about S19 W43). Eruptions and flaring activity from this active region could be accompanied with the particle event, due to the position of the active region, therefore we issue warning conditions for a proton event. The solar wind speed currently amounts about 490 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is still slightly elevated and it is presently 9nT. The short intervals of negative value of Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field resulted in unsettled geomagnetic condition (the local station at Dourbes and Izmiran reported values of K=3, and NOAA reported Kp=4). The fast solar wind originating from the large polar coronal hole with the extent to the low latitudes (up to about S40) might be expected at the Earth in the morning of December 6. Therefore we expect unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions in the next 24 hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 040, na základě 05 stanic.

Solární indexy za 04 Dec 2014

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	158
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	010
Odhadovaný Ap	011
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	076 - Na základě 07 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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