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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2014 Dec 14 1249 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
14 Dec 2014	170	011
15 Dec 2014	175	006
16 Dec 2014	180	011

Bulletin

The Sun produced many C-class flares, originating from NOAA active regions 2227, 2237 and 2241. NOAA 2227 is approaching the west limb, while NOAA 2241 is the new region close to the East limb. The strongest flares were a C8.6 from NOAA 2241 at 4:33 UT and C8.5 from NOAA 2237 at 8:33 UT. An enhancement in the proton flux (no event threshold passed yet) starting in the second half of December 13 (no exact timing due to a data gap in proton flux data) might be related to a C flare originating from NOAA 2227 at 21:54 UT (visible in SDO imagery). A strong eruption occurred at the backside of the Sun, at a region near E150S20, at about 14:20 UT on December 13. It was accompanied by a type II burst measured at Sagamore Hill, starting at 14:48 UT (shock speed 955 km/s). No Earth-directed CME was observed. Chances for an M-class flare are increasing (probability around 50%), mainly from NOAA 2227, 2237 and 2241. The risk for a proton event is increasing, for example in case of a strong flare from NOAA 2227. Solar wind speed is between 400 and 500 km/s and the magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field is stable around 5 nT with a mainly negative Bz. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled and are expected to remain so. The arrival of a high speed stream related to a equatorial coronal hole might result in slightly increased geomagnetic activity from late December 16.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 109, na základě 12 stanic.

Solární indexy za 13 Dec 2014

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	160
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	012
Odhadovaný Ap	011
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	111 - Na základě 11 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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