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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2015 Dec 02 1238 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
02 Dec 2015	094	013
03 Dec 2015	093	013
04 Dec 2015	092	015

Bulletin

Solar activity has been low over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a C2.2 class flare. NOAA Active Region (AR) 2458 (Cao Beta) has produced most of the activity, including the C2.2 flare peaking at 04:46 UT this morning. AR 2458 has shown some evidence of flux emergence and has the potential to produce more activity. The above-mentioned C2.2 flare has shown evidence of an associated EUV wave and coronal dimming, indicating an associated eruption. There are currently no coronagraph observations to verify this, but the source region is in a location likely to produce an Earth directed CME. A PRESTO will be issued once/if the presence of an associated CME is verified. The solar wind speed has been slowly declining over the past 24 hours from around 550 km /s to 400 km /s. The total magnetic field has fluctuated between 5 and 10 nT, and the Bz component has remained mostly negative around -5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between quiet and active (NOAA Kp 2-4, local K Dourbes 1-4). There is currently a large positive polar coronal hole and smaller positive transient coronal hole at lower latitudes on the West limb of the Sun. These have been causing the enhanced solar wind conditions at the Earth. Solar wind conditions are expected to return to background levels over the next day and geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled. An eruption was detected in EUV imagery yesterday, with a favourable source position for it to interact with the Earth. However, there were no supporting coronagraph observations to estimate the arrival time at Earth. We may experience enhanced activity at the Earth as a consequence over the next couple of days.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 046, na základě 16 stanic.

Solární indexy za 01 Dec 2015

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	095
AK Chambon La Forêt	025
AK Wingst	021
Odhadovaný Ap	019
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	027 - Na základě 13 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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