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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2015 Dec 28 1230 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
28 Dec 2015	107	007
29 Dec 2015	112	012
30 Dec 2015	115	007

Bulletin

Solar activity has been low with only a couple of C flares over the period. NOAA AR 2473 produced the strongest one, a C8.0 flare peaking at 00:28UT. During the writing of this report another flare from NOAA AR 2473 was ongoing, likely to peak near M1 level. NOAA AR 2473 remains capable of strong flaring. Flaring at M level is likely with also a slight chance for an X flare. No CMEs have been detected in coronagraph data. Total interplanetary magnetic field has decreased over the period from over 5nT to around the 2-4 nT range. After initially remaining elevated at levels around 520 km/s, solar wind speed started to decrease towards current levels of 440 km/s. Also temperature has decreased over the period. The magnetic field Bz component has been variable but with an extended period of positive values. The magnetic field phi angle switched back and forth between inward and outward direction and is expected to settle in the outward direction. Later today or tomorrow we may experience a renewed increase in solar wind conditions due to the possible influence of a high speed stream from a small equatorial coronal hole. Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to unsettled (both NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 1-3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to continue with some active periods possible.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 065, na základě 18 stanic.

Solární indexy za 27 Dec 2015

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	110
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	012
Odhadovaný Ap	011
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	062 - Na základě 25 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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