Prohlížíte si archiv čtvrtek 31. prosince 2015

Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2015 Dec 31 1230 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm tok	Ap
31 Dec 2015	100	049
01 Jan 2016	102	031
02 Jan 2016	105	024

Bulletin

Solar activity was low. The only prominent region on disk, NOAA 2473, showed decay and produced the only 2 C flares of the period of which the strongest a C4.3 flare peaking at 22:45UT. NOAA AR 2473 continued to show decay, especially in the trailing spots. Flaring at C level is expected with only a slight chance for an M flare from NOAA AR 2473. No Earth directed CMEs have been recorded. The >10MeV have recovered to nominal values with a slight chance for a proton event remaining, associated with possible activity from region 2473. Solar wind conditions remained nominal until midnight when at 00:02UT a shock occurred in ACE solar wind data, marking the arrival of the December 28 CME. Total interplanetary magnetic field jumped from 6nT to 13nT while solar wind speed jumped from 340km/s to 400 km/s. Solar wind speed kept increasing to a peak of around 500 km/s and is currently at around 460 km/s. Total magnetic field was in the 9-16nT range but Bz was initially variable and remained above -10nT. More recently, stronger and more pronounced negative peaks down to -13nT are recorded. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain enhanced over the next days in the wake of the CME today and into a sector boundary crossing with later the possible high speed stream influence from the low latitude extension of the (positive polarity) northern polar coronal hole. Only up to active geomagnetic conditions have been reported so far (both NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes reached 4). Subject to the evolution of the magnetic field and its Bz component minor to major geomagnetic storming conditions remain possible in the wake of the CME later easing to possible isolated active periods.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 019, na základě 17 stanic.

Solární indexy za 30 Dec 2015

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	102
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	004
Odhadovaný Ap	003
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	030 - Na základě 30 stanic

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