Prohlížíte si archiv pátek 12. února 2016

Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2016 Feb 12 1238 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
12 Feb 2016	117	016
13 Feb 2016	118	010
14 Feb 2016	119	009

Bulletin

NOAA AR 2497 has increased its magnetic complexity and now has beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. It produced 3 C-class flares and an M-class flare in the past 24 hours (two more C-class flares were produced by the NOAA AR 2492). We expect the flaring activity on the M-level from the NOAA AR 2497. The M1.0 flare peaking at 10:47 today was not accompanied by a CME. The C8.9 flare peaking at 21:03 UT on February 11 in the NOAA AR 2497 was accompanied by coronal dimmings, an EIT wave, and a post-eruption arcade observed by SDO/AIA. The associated halo CME (angular width around 270 degrees) first appeared in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 21:28 UT. Due to the position of the CME source region close to the solar disk center, the CME will most probably arrive at the Earth. The arrival may be expected late on February 14 - early on February 15. A minor to moderate geomagnetic storm (K around 5 to 6) may be expected. The Earth is currently inside an ICME, probably associated with a delayed arrival of the CME observed on the Sun late on February 5 (the solar wind speed is currently rather low, around 350 km/s). The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude is currently around 14 nT. The IMF north- south component Bz had extended southward intervals, but due to low solar wind speed only active geomagnetic conditions (K = 4) were reported by Dourbes, IZMIRAN, and NOAA. We expect unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 071, na základě 14 stanic.

Solární indexy za 11 Feb 2016

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	113
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	010
Odhadovaný Ap	011
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	086 - Na základě 23 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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