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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2016 Jul 17 1230 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
17 Jul 2016	106	012
18 Jul 2016	106	014
19 Jul 2016	105	011

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. The largest flare was a C1.4 class flare. Active Region (AR) 2567 (Macintosh class:Dsc; Mag. type:Beta-Gamma) has been the most active producing the C1.4 class flare, peaking at 08:03 UT this morning. The region shows evidence of flux emergence and cancellation in HMI magnetogram observations, this region is likely to produce further flaring activity. All other regions appear stable. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. Solar protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels over the next 24 hours with a high probability of C-class flares and a low probability of M-class flares. The solar wind speed has been slowly decreasing from around around 550 km/s to 450 km/s over the past 24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has fluctuated around 4 nT. The Bz component fluctuated around 0 nT, ranging between -4 and +2 nT, but has been mainly negative this morning. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 1-3 (NOAA) and local K index 1-4 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. The declining solar wind speeds and low magnetic field strength has reduced the chance of geomagnetic activity. However, a new High Speed Stream (HSS) is expected in a couple of days time, which may enhance geomagnetic activity again.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 039, na základě 16 stanic.

Solární indexy za 16 Jul 2016

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	107
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	010
Odhadovaný Ap	009
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	065 - Na základě 27 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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